Techniques and challenges in the assimilation of atmospheric water observations for numerical weather prediction towards convective scales

While contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction models represent the large-scale structure of moist atmospheric processes reasonably well, they often struggle to maintain accurate forecasts of small-scale features such as convective rainfall. Even though high-resolution models resolve more of the flow, and are therefore arguably more accurate, moist convective flow becomes increasingly nonlinear and dynamically unstable. Importantly, the models’ initial conditions are typically sub-optimal, leaving scope to improve the accuracy of forecasts with improved data assimilation. To address issues regarding the use of atmospheric water-related observations – especially at convective scales (also known as storm scales) – this paper discusses the observation and assimilation of water- related quantities. Special emphasis is placed on background error statistics for variational and hybrid methods which need special attention for water variables. The challenges of convective-scale data assimilation of atmospheric water information are discussed, which are more difficult to tackle than at larger scales. Some of the most important challenges include the greater degree of inhomogeneity and lower degree of smoothness of the flow, the high volume of water-related observations (e.g. from radar, microwave, and infrared instruments), the need to analyse a range of hydrometeors, the increasing importance of position errors in forecasts, the greater sophistication of forward models to allow use of indirect observations (e.g. cloud and precipitation affected observations), the need to account for the flow-dependent multivariate ‘balance’ between atmospheric water and both dynamical and mass fields, and the inherent non-Gaussian nature of atmospheric water variables

Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill

Spatial and Seasonal Distribution of American Whaling and Whales in the Age of Sail

American whalemen sailed out of ports on the east coast of the United States and in California from the 18th to early 20th centuries, searching for whales throughout the world’s oceans. From an initial focus on sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) and right whales (Eubalaena spp.), the array of targeted whales expanded to include bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae), and gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus). Extensive records of American whaling in the form of daily entries in whaling voyage logbooks contain a great deal of information about where and when the whalemen found whales. We plotted daily locations where the several species of whales were observed, both those caught and those sighted but not caught, on world maps to illustrate the spatial and temporal distribution of both American whaling activity and the whales. The patterns shown on the maps provide the basis for various inferences concerning the historical distribution of the target whales prior to and during this episode of global whaling

Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project

The FRANC project (Forecasting Rainfall exploiting new data Assimilation techniques and Novel observations of Convection) has researched improvements in numerical weather prediction of convective rainfall via the reduction of initial condition uncertainty. This article provides an overview of the project’s achievements. We highlight new radar techniques: correcting for attenuation of the radar return; correction for beams that are over 90% blocked by trees or towers close to the radar; and direct assimilation of radar reflectivity and refractivity. We discuss the treatment of uncertainty in data assimilation: new methods for estimation of observation uncertainties with novel applications to Doppler radar winds, Atmospheric Motion Vectors, and satellite radiances; a new algorithm for implementation of spatially-correlated observation error statistics in operational data assimilation; and innovative treatment of moist processes in the background error covariance model. We present results indicating a link between the spatial predictability of convection and convective regimes, with potential to allow improved forecast interpretation. The research was carried out as a partnership between University researchers and the Met Office (UK). We discuss the benefits of this approach and the impact of our research, which has helped to improve operational forecasts for convective rainfall event

Trends and correlates of HIV-1 resistance among subjects failing an antiretroviral treatment over the 2003-2012 decade in Italy

BACKGROUND: Despite a substantial reduction in virological failures following introduction of new potent antiretroviral therapies in the latest years, drug resistance remains a limitation for the control of HIV-1 infection. We evaluated trends and correlates of resistance in treatment failing patients in a comprehensive database over a time period of relevant changes in prescription attitudes and treatment guidelines. METHODS: We analyzed 6,796 HIV-1 pol sequences from 49 centres stored in the Italian ARCA database during the 2003-2012 period. Patients (n = 5,246) with viremia > 200 copies/mL received a genotypic test while on treatment. Mutations were identified from IAS-USA 2013 tables. Class resistance was evaluated according to antiretroviral regimens in use at failure. Time trends and correlates of resistance were analyzed by Cochran-Armitage test and logistic regression models. RESULTS: The use of NRTI backbone regimens slightly decreased from 99.7% in 2003-2004 to 97.4% in 2010-2012. NNRTI-based combinations dropped from 46.7% to 24.1%. PI-containing regimens rose from 56.6% to 81.7%, with an increase of boosted PI from 36.5% to 68.9% overtime. In the same reference periods, Resistance to NRTIs, NNRTIs and PIs declined from 79.1% to 40.8%, from 77.8% to 53.8% and from 59.8% to 18.9%, respectively (p < .0001 for all comparisons). Dual NRTI + NNRTI and NRTI + PI resistance decreased from 56.4% to 33.3% and from 36.1% to 10.5%, respectively. Reduced risk of resistance over time periods was confirmed by a multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Mutations associated with NRTIs, NNRTIs and PIs at treatment failure declined overtime regardless of specific class combinations and epidemiological characteristics of treated population. This is likely due to the improvement of HIV treatment, including both last generation drug combinations and prescription guidelines

Identification of Rhoptry Trafficking Determinants and Evidence for a Novel Sorting Mechanism in the Malaria Parasite Plasmodium falciparum

The rhoptry of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum is an unusual secretory organelle that is thought to be related to secretory lysosomes in higher eukaryotes. Rhoptries contain an extensive collection of proteins that participate in host cell invasion and in the formation of the parasitophorous vacuole, but little is known about sorting signals required for rhoptry protein targeting. Using green fluorescent protein chimeras and in vitro pull-down assays, we performed an analysis of the signals required for trafficking of the rhoptry protein RAP1. We provide evidence that RAP1 is escorted to the rhoptry via an interaction with the glycosylphosphatidyl inositol-anchored rhoptry protein RAMA. Once within the rhoptry, RAP1 contains distinct signals for localisation within a sub-compartment of the organelle and subsequent transfer to the parasitophorous vacuole after invasion. This is the first detailed description of rhoptry trafficking signals in Plasmodium

Additional records of metazoan parasites from Caribbean marine mammals, including genetically identified anisakid nematodes

Studies of marine mammal parasites in the Caribbean are scarce. An assessment for marine mammal endo- and ectoparasites from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but extending to other areas of the Caribbean, was conducted between 1989 and 1994. The present study complements the latter and enhances identification of anisakid nematodes using molecular markers. Parasites were collected from 59 carcasses of stranded cetaceans and manatees from 1994 to 2006, including Globicephala macrorhynchus, Kogia breviceps, Kogia sima, Lagenodelphis hosei, Mesoplodon densirostris, Peponocephala electra, Stenella longirostris, Steno bredanensis, Trichechus manatus. Tursiops truncatus, and Ziphius cavirostris. Sixteen species of endoparasitic helminthes were morphologically identified, including two species of acanthocephalans (Bolbosoma capitatum, Bolbosoma vasculosum), nine species of nematodes (Anisakis sp., Anisakis brevispiculata, Anisakis paggiae, Anisakis simplex, Anisakis typica, Anisakis ziphidarium, Crassicauda anthonyi, Heterocheilus tunicatus, Pseudoterranova ceticola), two species of cestodes (Monorygma grimaldi, Phyllobothrium delphini), and three species of trematodes (Chiorchis groschafti, Pulmonicola cochleotrema, Monoligerum blairi). The nematodes belonging to the genus Anisakis recovered in some stranded animals were genetically identified to species level based on their sequence analysis of mitochondrial DNA (629 bp of mtDNA cox 2). A total of five new host records and six new geographic records are presented.L'articolo è disponibile sul sito dell'editore http://www.springerlink.com

D-β-Hydroxybutyrate Is Protective in Mouse Models of Huntington's Disease

Abnormalities in mitochondrial function and epigenetic regulation are thought to be instrumental in Huntington's disease (HD), a fatal genetic disorder caused by an expanded polyglutamine track in the protein huntingtin. Given the lack of effective therapies for HD, we sought to assess the neuroprotective properties of the mitochondrial energizing ketone body, D-β-hydroxybutyrate (DβHB), in the 3-nitropropionic acid (3-NP) toxic and the R6/2 genetic model of HD. In mice treated with 3-NP, a complex II inhibitor, infusion of DβHB attenuates motor deficits, striatal lesions, and microgliosis in this model of toxin induced-striatal neurodegeneration. In transgenic R6/2 mice, infusion of DβHB extends life span, attenuates motor deficits, and prevents striatal histone deacetylation. In PC12 cells with inducible expression of mutant huntingtin protein, we further demonstrate that DβHB prevents histone deacetylation via a mechanism independent of its mitochondrial effects and independent of histone deacetylase inhibition. These pre-clinical findings suggest that by simultaneously targeting the mitochondrial and the epigenetic abnormalities associated with mutant huntingtin, DβHB may be a valuable therapeutic agent for HD

Chromatin Remodeling Pathways in Smooth Muscle Cell Differentiation, and Evidence for an Integral Role for p300

Phenotypic alteration of vascular smooth muscle cells (SMC) in response to injury or inflammation is an essential component of vascular disease. Evidence suggests that this process is dependent on epigenetic regulatory processes. P300, a histone acetyltransferase (HAT), activates crucial muscle-specific promoters in terminal (non-SMC) myocyte differentiation, and may be essential to SMC modulation as well.We performed a subanalysis examining transcriptional time-course microarray data obtained using the A404 model of SMC differentiation. Numerous chromatin remodeling genes (up to 62% of such genes on our array platform) showed significant regulation during differentiation. Members of several chromatin-remodeling families demonstrated involvement, including factors instrumental in histone modification, chromatin assembly-disassembly and DNA silencing, suggesting complex, multi-level systemic epigenetic regulation. Further, trichostatin A, a histone deacetylase inhibitor, accelerated expression of SMC differentiation markers in this model. Ontology analysis indicated a high degree of p300 involvement in SMC differentiation, with 60.7% of the known p300 interactome showing significant expression changes. Knockdown of p300 expression accelerated SMC differentiation in A404 cells and human SMCs, while inhibition of p300 HAT activity blunted SMC differentiation. The results suggest a central but complex role for p300 in SMC phenotypic modulation.Our results support the hypothesis that chromatin remodeling is important for SMC phenotypic switching, and detail wide-ranging involvement of several epigenetic modification families. Additionally, the transcriptional coactivator p300 may be partially degraded during SMC differentiation, leaving an activated subpopulation with increased HAT activity and SMC differentiation-gene specificity